Surprise Appearance

8/04/2015

Surprise Appearance:

Suppose you have not lost all of your marbles.  Suppose you still have one bag that contains 10 marbles – 2 black and 8 white. 

I have two questions for you. If you draw the marbles out 1 at a time (without looking), which drawing is most likely to produce the first black marble?  Which drawing is most likely to produce the second black marble?

I think the first black marble is more likely to be  drawn out of the bag on the ________ drawing.

I think the second black marble is more likely to be  drawn out of the bag on the ________ drawing.

I will post the solution in a couple of days.

David